The Competition between DVDs and Video-on-Demand, an example of Red Queens or Increasing Returns?

“Red Queens, Butterflies, and Strange Attractors: Imperfect Lenses into Emergent Technologies,” explains the phenomenon known as “Red Queens” in which two competing technologies propel improvements in both (Dr. Thornburg, 2013), so it is the idea that competition brings out the best of both worlds.  When video on demand came into the marketplace, it needed to dislodge DVDs; it had to have sufficient power and create sufficient momentum, or it would not be able to overcome the barrier established by the long-time thriving DVD market.  Because of the sustained competitive advantage of the DVD market, video on demand needed to be extra-competitive.  In this small way, one could argue that video on demand and the DVD industries demonstrate Red Queens.  Arguing against the concept of Red Queens to explain the success of these industries is the different timelines of the emergence of each technology.  DVD became popular first.  Video on line came second.  So, while video on demand may have been competing against DVD, the converse was not true. 

Okay, now let us now consider how DVDs and video on demand are examples of the concept of increasing returns.  Increasing Returns is the idea that once ahead, a company gets further ahead faster and faster, and once behind, the more behind a company falls (Arthur, 1996). Speaking in favor of the concept that increasing returns would explain the behavior of these industries, consider their developmental timeline.  Check out this informative report by EY regarding Trends and the Future of Television and Media http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY_-_6_trends_that_will_change_the_TV_industry/$FILE/EY-6-trends-that-will-change-the-TV-industry.pdf.  According to the report, the DVD industry reached its heyday in the mid-90s, replacing VCR.  Video on line was emerging about 2007 with 30 million users of Netflix.  Thus, these two industries had insufficient overlap at the time of their emergence for “red queens” to explain their emergence patterns.  Consider the concept of increasing returns.  I argue that “increasing returns” better describes the emergence of video on demand which replaced the prior entertainment technology of DVDs.  The EY report claims that it is the evolution of control that was the underlying drive that propelled video on demand to success.  Looked at from the angle of increasing returns, when DVD was up and coming, it had a technological advantage to the VCR because it was an improved form of technology.  When video on demand gathered momentum, it provided the consumer control and access.  The needs of the user changed and video on demand met those needs.  So as video on demand grabbed a niche in the marketplace, its momentum gathered, building upon itself more and more until the DVD industry fell further and further behind. 

References

Arthur, W. B. (1996). Increasing returns and the new world of business. Harvard Business Review, 74(4), 100–109

Thornburg, D. (2013d). Red queens, butterflies, and strange attractors: Imperfect lenses into emergent technologies. Lake Barrington, IL: Thornburg Center for Space Exploration

SixthSense is Disruptive

SixthSense is a computer system that one wears and it corresponds to movements that the wearer makes.  The SixthSense is described here:  http://www.ted.com/talks/pranav_mistry_the_thrilling_potential_of_sixthsense_technology.html

SixthSense detects things in the environment and informs the user of those objects. Additionally, one can use ordinary objects as a screen. Thus, no longer will the wearer need be limited to a computer and mouse to use digital technology.  Rather, the everyday environment becomes the computer field and hands become the mouse.  One will be able to automatically sync information in the environment into the computer by the camera in the wearable computer system.  For example, a page of information from a random book can be scanned into the computer.  Scanners would no longer be necessary. This technology is disruptive to other technologies because the camera will sense what the wearer wants to do, and responds correspondingly.  This technology would make the blind person’s white cane and the TV viewer’s remote control obsolete.  The hard box equipment of many devices would be obsolete.  So not only throw out the remote, toss the TV as well. 

From a social perspective, SixthSense will change the current pattern of individuals sitting at computers, and instead, computers will be seamless in the physical environment.  This will allow individuals to be more socialized with one another.  There will be less people staring into their phones. It is hard for me to image all of what else will arise through this technology. 

Once the SixthSense technology has emerged, I predict it would have about 35 years before being displaced.  I imagine a replacement technology would be something that provides the computer functioning without the camera and little finger tip devices but instead the computer could be placed just beneath the skin on the hands and forehead.  What a world it is going to be!

When I think about the video, Rhymes of History, (Dr. Thornburg, 2014) and how societal patterns can be created anew in present technology, there is an emerging technology that I think succinctly fits as an example.  Social media is a rhyme of history rekindling past days of sitting around the campfire. My 103-year-old grandmother explained to me that when she was young, at the end of the day, as the cool of the night set in, the family would gather around and tell stories.  While nowadays people seem glued to their phones, I must ask, are we really less social?  Or are we more social than ever before?

I could link any of probably a thousand social media sites to serve as an example to demonstrate my point.  I picked one which happened to focus on the theme of hearing through social media in the same manner as in the old campfire days, where people sat around to listen to a tale of what others thought:  https://www.thepinnaclesolutions.com/solutions/campfire/

References

Laureate Education (Producer). (2014). David Thornburg: Rhymes of History [Video file]. Baltimore, MD: Author.